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How to lock in bet value: early line strategy vs locking closer to the event

Creation date: Jul 24, 2025 6:22am     Last modified date: Jul 24, 2025 6:22am   Last visit date: Nov 30, 2025 4:06pm
3 / 20 posts
Jul 24, 2025  ( 1 post, 2 replies latest Aug 6, 2025 )  
7/24/2025
6:22am
Emma Collins Collins (emma56)

Lately, I’ve been stuck between locking in bets early or waiting till closer to game time. A few weeks ago, I took an early line on a boxing match because the odds looked solid, but then two days before the fight, the line moved heavily in my favor. If I had just waited, I would’ve gotten way better value. But other times, I've waited too long and the odds got worse. It’s honestly confusing — is there a smart way to decide when to lock in a bet, or is it always just a gamble either way?

8/4/2025
5:02am
Thomas Liii (barryb2134)

I’ve been in that spot more times than I can count, and yeah, it really depends. If you’re confident and you think the market will shift against you, early locking makes sense. But most of the time, waiting gives you more info — team news, injury updates, public betting trends, all that. I came across this article that talks about this exact thing — https://www.mumbaikarsperspective.com/entertainment/why-early-birds-dont-always-get-the-worm-when-betting-on/cid16925647.htm — and it kind of shifted how I think about early bets. Personally, unless I spot crazy value right away, I try to hold off until closer to the match. Had a case with a UFC event where I waited till weigh-ins and ended up with a much better read on the fight. The patience paid off that time.

8/6/2025
11:05am
Miller Grace (millergraceee515)

I’m just browsing around and noticed this thread. Never realized how much strategy goes into the timing of placing a bet. I usually just follow gut feeling when I play casually, but reading all this makes me see it’s way deeper than I thought. Cool to learn new stuff even when you're not a heavy bettor.