War against Ukraine, the first month - Russian Failure or part of the Scenario?! The Third Option.
(The first paper. Updated on 06 March 2022, 09:40. Initially published on 06 March 2022)



The key point, which the free world has failed so many times to take care of, is the understanding
of the amount of courage, bravery and sacrifice people paid fighting their own and external
totalitarian, inhuman, brutal leadership. Remember, failing to forget this point is, in fact, the
birth of the next Putin, Stalin, Hitler. They are not brought by chance into our lives, but born
out of our ignorance for someone else's pain, suffering and sacrifice.

One prediction seems more fact than a prediction.

Good, inspiring words, intentions, and thoughts are good, but never enough to defend values,
lives, and a future.

One thing is clear - if the Russian aggression is not stopped, it is clear that all potential
aggressiveness around the Globe will receive the message that it is time to act. Obviously, the
price to stop ongoing Russian aggression is unbelievably high. And, it is even more obvious that
the price to stop following aggressive actions from not only Russia, but all aggressors having in
mind that they could act in orchestrated manner is much, much higher. It is also obvious that
saying price means human lives, rights to a future, rights to freedom of choice and all kinds of
human suffering.

Nobody ever wants to pay a high price. There is a strong natural desire to postpone, to rely on a
miracle as there is no chance to rely on humanity, logic, and mercy. The only way to take time to
consider possible courses for action is to continuously and uninterruptedly watch how Ukrainians
are dying. It will help those who are still in doubt to reduce the time necessary to get ready to
act actively. Do not close your eyes - it has never helped anyone!

Every second the world postpones stopping the Russian aggression in Ukraine is raising the price,
in geometrical progression!


Is it a Russian failure or part of the Scenario?

Lack of understanding is the path to more tragic consequences.

The reality of the first month of the Russian Aggression surprised western military experts hugely
as all their initial estimations have been changed widely, publicly recognizing the dramatic
deviations between their expectations and realities in the field. Nobody expected that the Russians
would lose dozens and dozens of aircraft and helicopters, hundreds of tanks and armoured vehicles
and thousands of soldiers.  

What is the source of such an outcome? Courage and bravery of Ukrainians – yes. Unprecedented
international support – yes. Russian unpreparedness, unprofessionalism, lack of motivation –
possible. Those reasons are widespread throughout the media. Those reasons are something we
sincerely would like to believe which is why we repeat them. The question is “Did we miss anything?
Did we miss anything critical?” The answer is yes, and it is paramount and could cost the lives of
a lot to ordinary people!!!

The most important reason driving the current madness is the mentality of the Russian political
elite, which remains unchanged for the last hundred years. Russia wants this bloody war to be as
bloody as possible, as inhuman as possible and it wants it to last a long time – weeks, months.
Their barbarian expectations are all, everybody must know and remember that Russians are merciless,
brutal, and unstoppable, without exception. It is also the message for the Russian people, that
there is no chance of internal resistance as the stakes are high. That is step one of the scenario.
The motto is “we are not searching for humanity, for morality, for love or respect – we are
searching for total fear”. The first consequence is that there is zero effectiveness to appeal to
humanity or morality.

Look at the period 22 February – 03March, having in mind “Step One”. Russia sent unprepared troops
attacking along a line of 2,000 km simultaneously, against all basic principles of Military Art –
the goals are:
1. Spill first blood in great amounts from their own troops to ensure that there is no way back
for Russian society. Now, Russians are going to fight not only to overthrow “illegitimate
government” (the Russian leadership`s mantra), but to take revenge for the killed Russians. This is
important because there was not any widespread desire and will to fight Ukrainians in Russian
society and Russian military in particular.  

2. In contrast to another Russian mantra within 2013-February 2022, there were no foreign
mercenaries in Ukraine. The brutality of the Russian invasion has convinced people around Europe
and others to come to Ukraine to defend Ukraine along with Ukrainians. President Zelensky publicly
announced that Ukraine asks and welcomes anybody who is ready to fight the Russian aggression along
with Ukrainians to protect Europe's safety and freedom. Plus, public speeches of some officials
(British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office) that they will support individuals who would
like to join Ukrainians in fighting Russian aggression. This is important as Russian propaganda now
has what they were dreaming of. Now Russian propaganda will repeat again and again that foreign
mercenaries led by NATO are going to invade Russia as they take full control over Ukraine. It is
very important as it is the main justification for the Russian leadership before the Russian society
for the price ordinary Russians are going to pay, as they must protect the Russian nation and its
existence.

3. Russia has already started to flatten a few Ukrainian cities. The way they are committing the
crime is intentionally open. There is little or no military sense for such suffering and
destruction, except one, they want to force the international community as well as Russian society
to observe the level of their determination and mercilessness. They want everybody to remember who
they are, that is why it is intentionally protracted over time. They control and limit the level of
firepower they can produce to lengthen the waiting for the blood and suffering to reach the limit
determined by them. Again, the goal is to directly threaten the international community and to
threaten Russian society to let them know that Stalin is back and concentration camps or Gulags
will consume the bravest of people even if there are millions.

4. Committing crimes openly against humanity, observing and enjoying statements and promises by
western officials that NATO and western leadership establishment will ensure that the western
military will not take part in direct confrontation with the Russian military. The goal is to show
that western power is limited. Factually, it is a direct and open humiliation of western power,
which claimed over the previous few decades that it is capable of projecting its power everywhere.
In reality, it appeared that it is Russia, exactly Russia, who can limit western powers as no other
case in recent history. This message is digested by everyone and everywhere around the globe, by
politicians and ordinary citizens. It is a message to Taiwan to other countries that they will be
left alone to die despite all words and promises of support by western powers. In short, the value
of western promises is Zero. Therefore, it is paramount for Russians and their team players to
ensure that the war is bloody enough and lasts long enough to let everybody around the world
understand the message – this is the tragic reality of what is happening.

Two possible ways to stop the tragedy

The high price for a solution should not surprise anyone if the existence itself is at stake and
there is no better solution as well as no time to postpone.

There are potentially three major approaches to stop the tragedy, however, there are only two
practical lines of effort. Diplomacy and appeals to humanity are not an option any more as the
amount of blood, destruction and suffering which have been inflicted on Ukrainians already overcome
the threshold on the road back for Russian leadership as well as for thousands of Russian
servicemen and officials. Moreover, enormous human suffering and unimaginable destruction are part
of the Russian Scenario to threaten the world.

Option1. The internal rebellion in Russia can stop the tragedy. It is a less risky line of effort,
but it is a less probable one. Russia has already become a totalitarian state long before the
tragedy started. Russian civil society has been brutally suppressed several times within the past
decades including protests against the war in Georgia in 2008, aggression in Ukraine in 2014 and
several other protests to defend civil rights, etc. Moreover, Russia has a long history of civil
society suppression, when Russian totalitarian machines were mastering their famous, well-known
expertise in suppressing dozens of millions of their own citizens.

Still, the possibility to raise Russian citizens to stop the madness is possible, and in light of
limited options is the main approach to stop the unfolding tragedy. There should be no intermediate
terms like some or significant steps taken to raise Russian masses to stop the disastrous
aggression from within. There is no time to precisely adjust the amount of effort to the minimum
necessary, as gradual adjustment leads to the strategic loss of time and initiative. This approach
has already failed leading to the ongoing tragedy with dozens of thousands of lives lost so far.
All possible actions should be taken immediately as the cost grows exponentially day by day. The
only term is a set of actions, which guarantees that Russian society will rise to stop the tyranny.

The key point, which the west has failed so many times to take care of is understanding of the
amount of courage, bravery and sacrifice people will need to pay fighting their own totalitarian,
inhuman, brutal leadership. Remember, failing to forget this point of ignorance to someone`s
sacrifice is the birth of the next Putin, Stalin, Hitler. They are not brought by chance into our
lives, but born by our ignorance for someone else's pain, suffering and sacrifice.

The second option is an ultimatum. Yes, it sounds very dangerous but what is the difference between
the Caribbean crises and the ongoing Ukrainian crises?
❖ At the time of the Caribbean crisis Soviet nuclear weapons were relocated to the border with
the US. It is clear that nuclear weapons will be located in Ukraine and Belorussian territory
should western power allow Russia to take control of Ukraine. Yes, Russian nuclear weapons have not
been relocated yet but that is only a matter of time, as it was publicly announced by at least
Belorussian leader.
❖ In both cases, the sides publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons. Putin has already put
Russian nuclear forces (Strategic Deterrence Forces) on high alert. Putin has already publicly
threatened to use nuclear force against European nations, NATO members and others should they
confront Russia in the invasion of Ukraine.
It is true that this option is catastrophically dangerous. True, the question is what is the
threshold for the free world to consider this option? NATO countries? If yes, the free world will
willingly and consciously hand over the rest of the world, which does not belong to Putin,
strengthening the aggressor. If so, the western position will be much weaker. Everybody knows,
there is little or no sense in negotiating with terrorists. Yes, this is an option, which
everybody likes to avoid. However, the truth is that Russians with their international supporters
will not stop. Should we let them strengthen themselves before there is no more space to step back?

People are intelligent: let’s list the facts

I will intentionally omit the minor facts, intentions, promises and expectations as they are
directed at creating the legal justification. We should take into account all sides, NOT just
Russia’s.

1. December 2021. Top Russian leadership repeatedly and intentionally publicly (recollect the
emphasis on written negotiations) announced their official grievances regarding NATO and European
security policies violating Russian security. The quantity of Russian troops relocated to the
close vicinity to the Ukraine border reached 100000 - 150000. There was no talk about a West vs
Russia direct confrontation, in fact the opposite is true, there were lots of promises that a
united response is the only approach to prevent tragedy in Europe. Only sanctions and potential
strengthening of NATO countries were discussed. Iran and China's confrontation with the west
continues to accumulate growing tensions. There are public signs that the China and Iran
influences are growing and official behavior was tougher as well as bilateral ties between each
other including Russia.  

2. January 2021. Active discussions in Europe and the US regarding Russian demands with only one
option in essence (as the other options are mere simulation of efforts). Every or almost every
top NATO, European and other official were trying to pretend to be great negotiators and conflict
mediators with public announcements that they have reached relevant or significant achievements
on the way to the disagreement solution. Regarding the nuclear agreement with Iran, Western
leadership continues to announce that there are just a few weeks remaining to reach the nuclear
deal or it will be irrelevant (the only difference is that the word months was changed to weeks).
There are public delegations, top official visits, bilateral agreements signed between Russia,
China, and Iran.

3. February 2022. The US president announced that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine. The US
publicly emphasizes that there are no circumstances under which the US military would directly
confront Russian military. Immediately after, every EU and NATO country started to repeat
officially and publicly the same: "There is no way NATO or EU would come into direct military
confrontation regardless of the scale and no matter what happens in Ukraine". THIS IS THE
MOMENT WHEN WEST SHOWS THE GREEN LIGHT TO RUSSIA, CHINA AND IRAN as well as others. That is
also a sign to their own citizens to be prepared to do nothing while enjoying massacre as well
as official justification and legitimacy for western powers' leadership decisions as people
accepted it by voting silently (voting silently does not change anything formally or
informally!). UKRAINIANS RECEIVED ADDITIONAL SIGN AND HOPE - "UNPRECEDENTED INTERNATIONAL
SUPPORT" (quite vague and obscure term in light of imminent threat knowing that support without
military involvement has never prevented massacre).  

Digits have the ability to sober you up

People tend to believe in what they want disregarding the facts and reality. It never helped
anyone…

Based on the general principles of the Military Art, a military operation is considered successful
if personnel and weaponry losses are less than 30% as it is considered possible to replenish,
restaff to safeguard military capabilities of the units. Yes, it is called - ‘successful operation
with heavy losses’.

According to public estimation, Russians have lost about 10,000 personnel, about 100 aircraft and
helicopters, and about 500 hundreds armoured vehicles. Even if these numbers are precise, it means
that Russia’s losses are about 5% personnel (out of 200 thousand reported before). At the same
time, Russians were reinforced by Belorussian military and other Belorussian agencies, which were
not considered before. Another truth is that Ukrainians have no source for reinforcement meaning
that what is lost is lost.

The main conclusion is that Russians will keep full capabilities to continue the massacre for
weeks, which sounds ……. I lack words to finish the sentence.

Additionally, there are ongoing Russian talks with former Soviet republics to join the Russian
aggression in Ukraine. In the case that former Soviet countries join the Russian aggression, the
Russian striking force will be strengthened by dozens of thousands of personnel and logistic
capabilities. That is another dangerous point in light of the current western stance, as those
countries are pushed by professional western experts and think tanks into the Russian alliance.
In essence, the former Soviet countries clearly understand their geographical location, the value
of promises of protection by western powers, as well as watching their worst expectations unfold
right in front of them in Ukraine. Should no change take place in western response - imminent
consequence will happen in the nearest future - Russia will be reinforced by former Soviet
countries. This dark perspective means growing Russian influence in terms of everything: political
power, votes in UN, geographical control, resources, military strength and potential as well as
justification and strengthening of its internal rhetoric and propaganda. Returning to the growing
price for the free world response to the Russian aggression, this short-term perspective means
multiplication of current Russian threat to the free world as well as the price for the future
free people response.

Who and How should they deal with Putin?

Those who have handled the problem before and while it was transforming (for 30years !!!) into a
tragedy have no chance to continue to resolve it as stakes are measured by thousands of lives,
understanding that there is zero signs of personal responsibility and public accountability so far.

How is it possible that Russia dared to publicly threaten the whole world in February 2022? How it
could be possible taking into account that the former USSR collapsed just 30 years ago, the first
major Russian financial crisis happened 25 years ago, the second 13 years ago, and the third 7
years ago. How could it be possible for Russia to threaten the NATO alliance, which grew two times
from 16 to 30 member states since the former USSR collapse when 15 countries declared their
independence leaving Russia's sphere of influence? There is no need to add anything to those
questions. The current Russian aggressive stance and aggressive behavior is not something which
appeared somewhere somehow within one day. In contrast, it is something that has been growing for
not years but decades.

All possible answers could be grouped into two major categories: it happened due to the mistakes of
western powers OR the aggressor was intentionally recreated for some reason. It is clear and
obvious even before the right answer is revealed that it is not about one mistake, on the contrary,
it is about systematic misunderstanding, ineffectiveness, and wrongdoing even if some players were
acting intentionally as the tragedy was unfolding for almost 30 years. Those who were dealing with
the situation during these 30 years, all thinktanks, experts, professionals, officials should have
little influence on dealing with the tragedy.

It is critically vital to understand the answer as soon as possible.  It is vital to reject any
attempts to postpone or skip the full understanding of routes and courses which led to the ongoing
tragedy in Europe. The reason for such harsh statements is clear - those who led the world to
these crises must not take any part in the conflict resolution as it will increase suffering and
deepen the crisis. One cannot change for the better unless he/she is brave and mature enough to
recognize mistakes and accept personal responsibility.


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Kostiantyn Tkachuk
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